Frequentist rules for regulatory approval of subgroups in phase III trials: A fresh look at an old problem.

BACKGROUND: The number of Phase III trials that include a biomarker in design and analysis has increased due to interest in personalised medicine. For genetic mutations and other predictive biomarkers, the trial sample comprises two subgroups, one of which, say B+ is known or suspected to achieve a larger treatment effect than the other B-. Despite treatment effect heterogeneity, trials often draw patients from both subgroups, since the lower responding B- subgroup may also gain benefit from the intervention. In this case, regulators/commissioners must decide what constitutes sufficient evidence to approve the drug in the B- population. METHODS AND RESULTS: Assuming trial analysis can be completed using generalised linear models, we define and evaluate three frequentist decision rules for approval. For rule one, the significance of the average treatment effect in B- should exceed a pre-defined minimum value, say ZB->L. For rule two, the data from the low-responding group B- should increase statistical significance. For rule three, the subgroup-treatment interaction should be non-significant, using type I error chosen to ensure that estimated difference between the two subgroup effects is acceptable. Rules are evaluated based on conditional power, given that there is an overall significant treatment effect. We show how different rules perform according to the distribution of patients across the two subgroups and when analyses include additional (stratification) covariates in the analysis, thereby conferring correlation between subgroup effects. CONCLUSIONS: When additional conditions are required for approval of a new treatment in a lower response subgroup, easily applied rules based on minimum effect sizes and relaxed interaction tests are available. Choice of rule is influenced by the proportion of patients sampled from the two subgroups but less so by the correlation between subgroup effects.

The contribution of the anaesthetist to risk-adjusted mortality after cardiac surgery.

It is widely accepted that the performance of the operating surgeon affects outcomes, and this has led to the publication of surgical results in the public domain. However, the effect of other members of the multidisciplinary team is unknown. We studied the effect of the anaesthetist on mortality after cardiac surgery by analysing data collected prospectively over ten years of consecutive cardiac surgical cases from ten UK centres. Casemix-adjusted outcomes were analysed in models that included random-effects for centre, surgeon and anaesthetist. All cardiac surgical operations for which the EuroSCORE model is appropriate were included, and the primary outcome was in-hospital death up to three months postoperatively. A total of 110 769 cardiac surgical procedures conducted between April 2002 and March 2012 were studied, which included 127 consultant surgeons and 190 consultant anaesthetists. The overwhelming factor associated with outcome was patient risk, accounting for 95.75% of the variation for in-hospital mortality. The impact of the surgeon was moderate (intra-class correlation coefficient 4.00% for mortality), and the impact of the anaesthetist was negligible (0.25%). There was no significant effect of anaesthetist volume above ten cases per year. We conclude that mortality after cardiac surgery is primarily determined by the patient, with small but significant differences between surgeons. Anaesthetists did not appear to affect mortality. These findings do not support public disclosure of cardiac anaesthetists' results, but substantially validate current UK cardiac anaesthetic training and practice. Further research is required to establish the potential effects of very low anaesthetic caseloads and the effect of cardiac anaesthetists on patient morbidity.

Clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of endobronchial and endoscopic ultrasound relative to surgical staging in potentially resectable lung cancer: results from the ASTER randomised controlled trial.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of endosonography (followed by surgical staging if endosonography was negative), compared with standard surgical staging alone, in patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) who are otherwise candidates for surgery with curative intent. DESIGN: A prospective, international, open-label, randomised controlled study, with a trial-based economic analysis. SETTING: Four centres: Ghent University Hospital, Belgium; Leuven University Hospitals, Belgium; Leiden University Medical Centre, the Netherlands; and Papworth Hospital, UK. INCLUSION CRITERIA: known/suspected NSCLC, with suspected mediastinal lymph node involvement; otherwise eligible for surgery with curative intent; clinically fit for endosonography and surgery; and no evidence of metastatic disease. EXCLUSION CRITERIA: previous lung cancer treatment; concurrent malignancy; uncorrected coagulopathy; and not suitable for surgical staging. INTERVENTIONS: Study patients were randomised to either surgical staging alone (n = 118) or endosonography followed by surgical staging if endosonography was negative (n = 123). Endosonography diagnostic strategy used endoscopic ultrasound-guided fine-needle aspiration combined with endobronchial ultrasound-guided transbronchial needle aspiration, followed by surgical staging if these tests were negative. Patients with no evidence of mediastinal metastases or tumour invasion were referred for surgery with curative intent. If evidence of malignancy was found, patients were referred for chemoradiotherapy. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The main clinical outcomes were sensitivity (positive diagnostic test/nodal involvement during any diagnostic test or thoracotomy) and negative predictive value (NPV) of each diagnostic strategy for the detection of N2/N3 metastases, unnecessary thoracotomy and complication rates. The primary economic outcome was cost-utility of the endosonography strategy compared with surgical staging alone, up to 6 months after randomisation, from a UK NHS perspective. RESULTS: Clinical and resource-use data were available for all 241 patients, and complete utilities were available for 144. Sensitivity for detecting N2/N3 metastases was 79% [41/52; 95% confidence interval (CI) 66% to 88%] for the surgical arm compared with 94% (62/66; 95% CI 85% to 98%) for the endosonography strategy (p = 0.02). Corresponding NPVs were 86% (66/77; 95% CI 76% to 92%) and 93% (57/61; 95% CI 84% to 97%; p = 0.26). There were 21/118 (18%) unnecessary thoracotomies in the surgical arm compared with 9/123 (7%) in the endosonography arm (p = 0.02). Complications occurred in 7/118 (6%) in the surgical arm and 6/123 (5%) in the endosonography arm (p = 0.78): one pneumothorax related to endosonography and 12 complications related to surgical staging. Patients in the endosonography arm had greater EQ-5D (European Quality of Life-5 Dimensions) utility at the end of staging (0.117; 95% CI 0.042 to 0.192; p = 0.003). There were no other significant differences in utility. The main difference in resource use was the number of thoracotomies: 66% patients in the surgical arm compared with 53% in the endosonography arm. Resource use was similar between the groups in all other items. The 6-month cost of the endosonography strategy was £9713 (95% CI £7209 to £13,307) per patient versus £10,459 (£7732 to £13,890) for the surgical arm, mean difference £746 (95% CI -£756 to £2494). The mean difference in quality-adjusted life-year was 0.015 (95% CI -0.023 to 0.052) in favour of endosonography, so this strategy was cheaper and more effective. CONCLUSIONS: Endosonography (followed by surgical staging if negative) had higher sensitivity and NPVs, resulted in fewer unnecessary thoracotomies and better quality of life during staging, and was slightly more effective and less expensive than surgical staging alone. Future work could investigate the need for confirmatory mediastinoscopy following negative endoscopic ultrasound-guided fine-needle aspiration (EUS-FNA) and endobronchial ultrasound-guided transbronchial needle aspiration (EBUS-TBNA), the diagnostic accuracy of EUS-FNA or EBUS-TBNA separately and the delivery of both EUS-FNA or EBUS-TBNA by suitably trained chest physicians. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN 97311620. FUNDING: This project was funded by the NIHR Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 16, No. 18. See the HTA programme website for further project information.

The prevalence and association with transfusion, intensive care unit stay and mortality of pre-operative anaemia in a cohort of cardiac surgery patients.

Anaemia is increasingly prevalent in the United Kingdom. Despite recommendations to the contrary, many patients undergo cardiac surgery with undiagnosed and untreated anaemia. According to the World Health Organization definition, 1463/2688 (54.4%) patients undergoing cardiac surgery between 2008 and 2009 in our institution were anaemic. Compared with non-anaemic patients, anaemia was significantly associated with transfusion (791 (54.1%) vs 275 (22.4%), p < 0.001, OR (95% CI) 3.4 (2.8-4.1)), death (45 (3.1%) vs 13 (1.1%), p = 0.0005, OR 2.4 (1.2-4.5)), and prolonged ICU stay (287 (19.6%) vs 168 (13.7%) p < 0.001, OR 1.3 (1.0-1.6)). The prevalence of anaemia in this cohort is much greater than that previously reported. The cause of this excess is not clear. Pre-operative anaemia is a strong predictor of increased transfusion requirement, risk of ICU stay and death during cardiac surgery. The effect of increasing haemoglobin concentration therapeutically is not yet clear.

Expansion of the kidney donor pool by using cardiac death donors with prolonged time to cardiorespiratory arrest.

Donation after Cardiac Death (DCD) is an increasingly important source of kidney transplants, but because of concerns of ischemic injury during the agonal phase, many centers abandon donation if cardiorespiratory arrest has not occurred within 1 h of controlled withdrawal of life-supporting treatment (WLST). We report the impact on donor numbers and transplant function using instead a minimum 'cut-off' time of 4 h. The agonal phase of 173 potential DCD donors was characterized according to the presence or absence of: acidemia; lactic acidosis; prolonged (>30 min) hypotension, hypoxia or oliguria, and the impact of these characteristics on 3- and 12-month transplant outcome evaluated by multivariable regression analysis. Of the 117 referrals who became donors, 27 (23.1%) arrested more than 1 h after WLST. Longer agonal-phase times were associated with greater donor instability, but surprisingly neither agonal-phase instability nor its duration influenced transplant outcome. In contrast, 3- and 12-month eGFR in the 190 transplanted kidneys was influenced independently by donor age, and 3-month eGFR by cold ischemic time. DCD kidney numbers are increased by 30%, without compromising transplant outcome, by lengthening the minimum waiting time after WLST from 1 to 4 h.

The effect of oxygenator choice on hypotension during cardiopulmonary bypass.

Cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) exposes blood to artificial surfaces, which induces a systemic inflammatory activation.This may contribute to hypotension during CPB. A perceived difference between two membrane oxygenators was noted. Data were collected on 222 consecutive patients; four were excluded from the analysis due to having emergency operations. One hundred and twelve (51%) patients received the Apex oxygenator whilst 106 (49%) received the Quadrox. There was no difference between the two groups in the primary outcome; 90/112 patients (80%) in the Apex group and 77/106 (73%) in the Quadrox group (p=0.18, OR: 0.65; 95% CI: 0.34, 1.22) received meteraminol due to marked hypotension during CPB. There was also no difference in the secondary outcomes, length of stay in ICU (22.8 versus 22.7 hours, (OR 0.79, 95% CI: 0.42, 1.48, p=0.16) and length of stay in hospital (8.5 days versus 8.0 days (OR: 0.83, 95% CI: 0.48, 1.45; p=0.52). The choice of oxygenator between the Apex and Quadrox does not have an effect on hypotension in cardiac surgery.

Survival and length of stay following blood transfusion in octogenarians following cardiac surgery.

Our aim was to assess if peri-operative blood transfusion is an independent risk factor for mortality and morbidity in the elderly. We report the results of a cohort study of all patients aged 80 or more on the day of their emergency or elective cardiac surgery (n = 874), using routinely collected data from January 2003 to November 2007. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality in hospital. The secondary outcomes were duration of stay in the intensive care unit (ICU) and overall hospital stay. Confounding variables were used to build up a risk model using a multivariable logistic regression analysis, and blood transfusion was added to assess whether it had additional predictive value for hospital mortality. Patients were divided into three groups: (i) transfusion of 0-2 units of red blood cells; (ii) transfusion of > 2 units of red blood cells and (iii) transfusion of red blood cells plus other clotting products. The strongest independent predictors of hospital death were logistic EuroSCORE and body mass index. After inclusion of these two variables, the odds ratio for transfusion remained significant. Relative to 0-2 units, the odds ratio for > 2 units was 6.80 (95% CI 2.46-18.8), and for other additional blood products was 14.4 (95% CI 5.34-37.3), with a p value of < 0.001. Duration of stay in the ICU was significantly associated with the amount of blood products administered (median (IQR [range]) ICU stay 1 (1-2 [0-15]) day if transfused 0-2 units of red blood cells, 2 (1-6 [0-128]) days if transfused > 2 units of red blood cells and 3 (1-76 [0-114]) days if other clotting products were used; p value < 0.001). Hospital stay was also associated with the amount of red cells used (p < 0.001).

Time to cardiac death after withdrawal of life-sustaining treatment in potential organ donors.

Organ donation after cardiac death (DCD) is increasing markedly, allowing more patients to benefit from transplantation. The time to cardiac death following withdrawal of life-supporting treatment varies widely and is an important determinant of whether organ donation occurs. A prospective multicenter study of potential DCD donors was undertaken to evaluate the time to death and identify associated factors. One hundred and ninety-one potential adult DCD donors at nine UK centers were studied. Treatment withdrawal comprised stopping ventilator support and inotropes. Demographics and physiological variables at the time of death were recorded. Following treatment withdrawal, all potential donors died, with median time to death of 36 min (range 5 min to 3.3 days). Eighty-three potential donors (43.5%) remained alive 1 h after treatment withdrawal, and 69 (36.1%) and 54 (28.3%) at 2 and 4 h, respectively. Univariate analysis revealed that age, cause of death, ventilation mode, inotrope use, systolic blood pressure, FiO2 and arterial pH at treatment withdrawal were all associated with time to death. Multivariable analysis showed that younger age, higher FiO2 and mode of ventilation were independently associated with shorter time to death. This information may aid planning and resourcing of DCD organ recovery and help maximize DCD donor numbers.

Disease-specific survival benefit of lung transplantation in adults: a national cohort study.

The lung transplantation candidate population is heterogeneous and survival benefit has not been established for all patient groups. UK data from a cohort of 1997 adult (aged > or = 16), first lung transplant candidates (listed July 1995 to July 2006, follow-up to December 2007) were analyzed by diagnosis, to assess mortality relative to continued listing. Donor lungs were primarily allocated according to local criteria. Diagnosis groups studied were cystic fibrosis (430), bronchiectasis (123), pulmonary hypertension (74), diffuse parenchymal lung disease (564), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD, 647) and other (159). The proportion of patients in each group who died while listed varied significantly (respectively 37%, 48%, 41%, 49%, 19%, 38%). All groups had an increased risk of death at transplant, which fell below waiting list risk of death within 4.3 months. Thereafter, the hazard ratio for death relative to listing ranged from 0.34 for cystic fibrosis to 0.64 for COPD (p < 0.05 all groups except pulmonary hypertension). Mortality reduction was greater after bilateral lung transplantation in pulmonary fibrosis patients (p = 0.049), but not in COPD patients. Transplantation appeared to improve survival for all groups. Differential waiting list and posttransplant mortality by diagnosis suggest further use and development of algorithms to inform lung allocation.

Paramedic-led prehospital thrombolysis is safe and effective: the East Anglian experience.

INTRODUCTION: Prehospital thrombolysis has been shown to improve patient outcomes in clinical trials and this has been confirmed in the ongoing large national myocardial infarction registry (Myocardial Infarction National Audit Project; MINAP) reports. This paper describes a system to improve the delivery of prehospital thrombolysis and the associated governance requirements to gain maximum patient benefit. METHODS: Demographic data were prospectively collected on all patients treated by the East Anglian Ambulance Trust with bolus thrombolytics for a presumed diagnosis of ST elevation myocardial infarction between November 2003 and February 2007. Survival status was determined from the NHS strategic tracing service. RESULTS: 1062 patients (mean age 64.0 years (SD 10.6), 795 men) were treated in this time period. There were 71 deaths in this group, with actuarial survival of 93.9% (SE 0.9%) at 30 days, 91.7% (SE 1.0%) at 6 months and 90.8% (SE 1.1%) at 12 months after treatment. Age and cardiac arrest were most strongly associated with mortality (both p<0.001). Twelve (1.2%) patients received thrombolysis that on review was considered inappropriate. There were no deaths in this subgroup. CONCLUSIONS: Prehospital thrombolysis can be administered safely by ambulance staff supported by a Trust clinical support system with excellent clinical outcomes.

Donor kidney disease and transplant outcome for kidneys donated after cardiac death.

BACKGROUND: Although outcomes of kidney transplants following donation after cardiac death (DCD) and donation after brainstem death (DBD) are similar, generally only optimal younger DCD donors are considered. This study examined the impact of pre-existing donor kidney disease on the outcome of DCD transplants. METHODS: This retrospective study compared the outcome of all DCD kidney transplants performed during 1996-2006 with contemporaneous kidney transplants from DBD donors. Implantation biopsies were scored for glomerular, tubular, parenchymal and vascular disease (global histology score). There were 104 DCD and 104 DBD kidney transplants. RESULTS: Delayed graft function (DGF) occurred more frequently in DCD than DBD kidneys (64.4 versus 28.8 per cent; P < 0.001). Long-term graft outcome was similar. The only donor factor that influenced outcome was baseline kidney disease, which was similar in both groups, even though DCD donors were younger, with a higher predonation estimated glomerular filtration rate. The global histology score predicted DGF (odds ratio 1.85 per unit; P = 0.006) and graft failure (relative risk 1.55 per unit; P = 0.001), although there was no difference for DCD and DBD kidneys. CONCLUSION: Transplant outcomes for DCD and DBD kidneys are comparable. Baseline donor kidney disease influences DGF and graft survival but the impact is no greater for DCD kidneys.

Clinical and cost-effectiveness analysis of an open label, single-centre, randomised trial of spinal cord stimulation (SCS) versus percutaneous myocardial laser revascularisation (PMR) in patients with refractory angina pectoris: The SPiRiT trial.

BACKGROUND: Patients with refractory angina have significant morbidity. This study aimed to compare two of the treatment options, Spinal Cord Stimulation (SCS) and Percutaneous Myocardial Laser Revascularisation (PMR) in terms of clinical outcomes and cost-effectiveness. METHODS: Eligible patients were randomised to PMR or SCS and followed up for exercise tolerance time (ETT), Canadian Cardiovascular Society (CCS) classification and the quality of life measures SF-36, Seattle Angina Questionnaire and the EuroQoL at 3, 12 and 24 months. Utilities were calculated using the EQ-5D and these and costs were compared between groups. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) per QALY for SCS compared to PMR was also calculated. RESULTS: At 24 months post-randomisation, patients that had SCS and PMR had similar ETT (mean difference 0.05, 95% CI -2.08, 2.18, p = 0.96) and there was no difference in CCS classification or quality of life outcomes. The difference in overall mean costs when comparing SCS to PMR was GBP5,520 (95% CI GBP1,966 to GBP8,613; p < 0.01) and the ICER of using SCS was GBP46,000 per QALY. CONCLUSION: Outcomes after SCS did not differ appreciably from those after PMR, with the former procedure being less cost-effective as currently applied. Larger studies could clarify which patients would most benefit from SCS, potentially increasing cost-effectiveness. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN09648950.

Cost-effectiveness of functional cardiac testing in the diagnosis and management of coronary artery disease: a randomised controlled trial. The CECaT trial.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the acceptability and feasibility of functional tests as a gateway to angiography for management of coronary artery disease (CAD), the ability of diagnostic strategies to identify patients who should undergo revascularisation, patient outcomes in each diagnostic strategy, and the most cost-effective diagnostic strategy for patients with suspected or known CAD. DESIGN: A rapid systematic review of economic evaluations of alternative diagnostic strategies for CAD was carried out. A pragmatic and generalisable randomised controlled trial was undertaken to assess the use of the functional cardiac tests: angiography (controls); single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT); magnetic resonance imaging (MRI); stress echocardiography. SETTING: The setting was Papworth Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, a tertiary cardiothoracic referral centre. PARTICIPANTS: Patients with suspected or known CAD and an exercise test result that required non-urgent angiography. INTERVENTIONS: Patients were randomised to one of the four initial diagnostic tests. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Eighteen months post-randomisation: exercise time (modified Bruce protocol); cost-effectiveness compared with angiography (diagnosis, treatment and follow-up costs). The aim was to demonstrate equivalence in exercise time between those randomised to functional tests and those randomised to angiography [defined as the confidence interval (CI) for mean difference from angiography within 1 minute]. RESULTS: The 898 patients were randomised to angiography (n = 222), SPECT (n = 224), MRI (n = 226) or stress echo (n = 226). Initial diagnostic tests were completed successfully with unequivocal results for 98% of angiography, 94% of SPECT (p = 0.05), 78% of MRI (p < 0.001) and 90% of stress echocardiography patients (p < 0.001). Some 22% of SPECT patients, 20% of MRI patients and 25% of stress echo patients were not subsequently referred for an angiogram. Positive functional tests were confirmed by positive angiography in 83% of SPECT patients, 89% of MRI patients and 84% of stress echo patients. Negative functional tests were followed by positive angiograms in 31% of SPECT patients, 52% of MRI patients and 48% of stress echo patients tested. The proportions that had coronary artery bypass graft surgery were 10% (angiography), 11% (MRI) and 13% (SPECT and stress echo) and percutaneous coronary intervention 25% (angiography), 18% (SPECT) and 23% (MRI and stress echo). At 18 months, comparing SPECT and stress echo with angiography, a clinically significant difference in total exercise time can be ruled out. The MRI group had significantly shorter mean total exercise time of 35 seconds and the upper limit of the CI was 1.14 minutes less than in the angiography group, so a difference of at least 1 minute cannot be ruled out. At 6 months post-treatment, SPECT and angiography had equivalent mean exercise time. Compared with angiography, the MRI and stress echo groups had significantly shorter mean total exercise time of 37 and 38 seconds, respectively, and the upper limit of both CIs was 1.16 minutes, so a difference of at least 1 minute cannot be ruled out. The differences were mainly attributable to revascularised patients. There were significantly more non-fatal adverse events in the stress echo group, mostly admissions for chest pain, but no significant difference in the number of patients reporting events. Mean (95% CI) total additional costs over 18 months, compared with angiography, were 415 pounds (-310 pounds to 1084 pounds) for SPECT, 426 pounds (-247 pounds to 1088 pounds) for MRI and 821 pounds (10 pounds to 1715 pounds) for stress echocardiography, with very little difference in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) amongst the groups (less than 0.04 QALYs over 18 months). Cost-effectiveness was mainly influenced by test costs, clinicians' willingness to trust negative functional tests and by a small number of patients who had a particularly difficult clinical course. CONCLUSIONS: Between 20 and 25% of patients can avoid invasive testing using functional testing as a gateway to angiography, without substantial effects on outcomes. The SPECT strategy was as useful as angiography in identifying patients who should undergo revascularisation and the additional cost was not significant, in fact it would be reduced further by restricting the rest test to patients who have a positive stress test. MRI had the largest number of test failures and, in this study, had the least practical use in screening patients with suspected CAD, although it had similar outcomes to stress echo and is still an evolving technology. Stress echo patients had a 10% test failure rate, significantly shorter total exercise time and time to angina at 6 months post-treatment, and a greater number of adverse events, leading to significantly higher costs. Given the level of skill required for stress echo, it may be best to reserve this test for those who have a contraindication to SPECT and are unable or unwilling to have MRI. Further research, using blinded reassessment of functional test results and angiograms, is required to formally assess diagnostic accuracy. Longer-term cost-effectiveness analysis, and further studies of MRI and new generation computed tomography are also required.

Flexible random-effects models using Bayesian semi-parametric models: applications to institutional comparisons.

Random effects models are used in many applications in medical statistics, including meta-analysis, cluster randomized trials and comparisons of health care providers. This paper provides a tutorial on the practical implementation of a flexible random effects model based on methodology developed in Bayesian non-parametrics literature, and implemented in freely available software. The approach is applied to the problem of hospital comparisons using routine performance data, and among other benefits provides a diagnostic to detect clusters of providers with unusual results, thus avoiding problems caused by masking in traditional parametric approaches. By providing code for Winbugs we hope that the model can be used by applied statisticians working in a wide variety of applications.

Evaluation of the ventricular assist device programme in the UK.

OBJECTIVES: To summarise the relevant clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness literature, to collect data on survival, transplantation rates, health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and resource use for ventricular assist device (VAD) and non-VAD transplant candidates in the UK, and to construct cost-effectiveness and cost-utility models of VADs in a UK context. Also to investigate the factors that drive costs and survival. DESIGN: A comprehensive systematic review was carried out. Data were collected from April 2002 to December 2004, with follow-up to March 2005. Cost-effectiveness and cost-utility models of VAD devices were developed based on UK activity and outcomes collected from April 2002 to March 2005. SETTING: National Specialist Commissioning Advisory Group funded VAD implantation was carried out at the Freeman, Harefield and Papworth transplant centres in the UK. PARTICIPANTS: Seventy patients were implanted with a VAD as a bridge to transplantation between April 2002 and December 2004. Non-VAD-supported transplant candidates (n = 250), listed at the three centres between April 2002 and December 2004, were divided into an inotrope-dependent group (n = 71) and a non-inotrope-dependent group (n = 179). Although patients in the inotrope-dependent group were closest to the VAD group they were less sick. The last group comprised a hypothetical worst case scenario, which assumed that all VAD patients would die in the intensive care unit (ICU) within 1 month without VAD technology. INTERVENTIONS: Patients were included who were implanted with a VAD designed for circulatory support for more than 30 days, with intention to bridge to transplantation. A multistate model of VAD and transplant activity was constructed; this was populated by data from the UK. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Survival from VAD implant or from transplant listing for non-VAD patients to 31 March 2005. Serious adverse events and quality of life measures were used. Cognitive functioning was also assessed. Utility weights were derived from EuroQoL responses to estimate quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were defined as the additional cost of VADs divided by additional QALYs. Time-horizons were 3 years, 10 years and the lifetime of the patients. RESULTS: Of 70 VAD patients, 30 (43%) died pretransplant, 31 (44%) underwent transplantation, and four (6%) recovered and had the VAD removed. Five patients (7%) were still supported for median of 279 days at the end of March 2005. Successful bridge-to-transplantation/recovery rates were consistent with published rates. Survival from VAD implantation was 74% at 30 days and 52% at 12 months. There were 320 non-fatal adverse events in 62 patients during 300 months of VAD support, mostly in the first month after implantation. Commonly observed events were bleeding, infection and respiratory dysfunction. Twenty-nine (41%) patients were discharged from hospital with a VAD. The 1-year survival post-transplantation was 84%. For the inotrope-dependent and non-inotrope-dependent transplant candidates, death rates while listed were 10% and 8% and the median waiting times were 16 and 87 days, respectively. For transplant recipients, 1-year survival was 85% and 84%, respectively. Both VAD and non-VAD patients demonstrated similar significant improvements in their New York Heart Association class after transplantation. All patients had poor EQ-5D pretransplantation; after transplantation the groups had similar EQ-5D of 0.76 irrespective of time after surgery. HRQoL was poor in the first month for VAD patients but better for those who waited longer in all groups. VAD patients reported more problems with sleep and rest and with ambulation in the first month. Symptom scores were similar in all groups pretransplant. After transplantation all groups showed a marked and similar improvement in physical and psychosocial function. Mean VAD implant cost, including device, was pound 63,830, with costs of VAD support for survivors of pound 21,696 in month 1 and pound 11,312 in month 2. Main cost drivers were device itself, staffing, ICU stay, hospital stay and events such as bleeding, stroke and infection. For the base case, extrapolating over the lifetime of the patients the mean cost for a VAD patient was pound 173,841, with mean survival of 5.63 years and mean QALYs of 3.27. Corresponding costs for inotrope-dependent patients were pound 130,905, with mean survival 8.62 years and mean QALYs 4.99. Since inotrope-dependent patients had lower costs and higher QALYs than VAD patients, this group is said to be dominant. Non-inotrope-dependent transplant candidates had similar survival rates to those on inotropes but lower costs, also dominant. Compared with the worst case scenario the mean lifetime ICER for VADs was pound 49,384 per QALY. In a range of sensitivity analyses this ranged from pound 35,121 if the device cost was zero to pound 49,384. Since neither inotrope-dependent transplant candidates nor the worst case scenario were considered fair controls the assumption was investigated that, without VAD technology, there would be a mixture of these situations. For mixtures considered the ICER for VADs ranged from pound 79,212 per QALY to the non-VAD group being both cheaper and more effective. CONCLUSIONS: There are insufficient data from either published studies or the current study to construct a fair comparison group for VADs. Overall survival of 52% is an excellent clinical achievement for those young patients with rapidly failing hearts. However, if the worst case scenario were plausible, and one could reliably extrapolate results to the lifetime of the patients, VADs would not be cost-effective at traditional thresholds. Further randomised controlled trials are required, using current second generation devices or subsequent devices and conducted in the UK.

A review of the evidence on the effects and costs of implantable cardioverter defibrillator therapy in different patient groups, and modelling of cost-effectiveness and cost-utility for these groups in a UK context.

OBJECTIVES: To update the systematic review evidence on the effectiveness, health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and cost-effectiveness of implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICDs); compilation of new data on the service provision in the UK; and on the clinical characteristics, survival, quality of life and costs of ICD patients in the UK, and a new cost-effectiveness model using both international RCT and UK-specific data. DATA SOURCES: Electronic databases searched from November 1999 to March 2003, this was supplemented by a systematic review of research published during 2003-5. Survey data. REVIEW METHODS: Studies were selected and assessed. A survey of ICD centres was carried out. Basic data were obtained from two major implanting centres including 535 patients (approximately 10% of overall UK activity) implanted between 1991 and 2002, and retrieval of fuller data, on patient characteristics, management and resource use, from patient notes for a sample of 426 patients was attempted. A cross-sectional survey collected HRQoL data (using the Nottingham Health Profile, Short Form 36, Hospital Anxiety and Depression questionnaire, EuroQoL 5 Dimensions and disease-specific questions) on a sample of 229 patients. A Markov model combined UK patient data with data from published randomised controlled trials (RCTs) to estimate incremental costs per life-year or quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. RESULTS: None of the economic analyses in the studies found could be directly applied to the UK. The multiple sources of routine data available (including the national ICD database) provide an imperfect picture of the need for and use of ICDs. Implantation rates have been rising to a rate of around 20 per million population. Mean age is increasing and most ICDs are implanted into men aged 45-74 years. There is significant geographical variation. A survey of 41 UK centres provided additional evidence, particularly of variation in level of activity and resourcing. Most detailed data were obtained for 380 patients (89%). The postal survey produced a 73% response rate. Demographic characteristics of these patients were similar to ICD recipients in the UK as a whole and patients included in secondary prevention RCTs. Mean actuarial survival at 1, 3 and 5 years was 92%, 86% and 71%, respectively. Patient age at implantation and functional status significantly affected survival. Levels of most of the HRQoL measures were lower than for a UK general population. There was no evidence of a change with time from implantation. Patients who had suffered ICD shocks had significantly poorer HRQoL. Most patients nevertheless expressed a high level of satisfaction with ICD therapy. Mean initial costs of implantation showed little variation between centres (23,300 pounds versus 22,100 pounds) or between earlier and more recent implants. There appeared to be greater variation between patients presenting along different pathways. Postdischarge costs (tests, medications and follow-up consultations) and costs of additional hospitalisations were also calculated. Using the Markov model it was found that over a 20-year horizon, mean discounted incremental costs were 70,900 pounds (35,000-142,400 pounds). Mean discounted gain was 1.24 years (0.29-2.32) or 0.93 QALYs. Cost-effectiveness was most favourable for men aged over 70 years with a left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) below 35%. If the treatment effect were to continue, then the cost per life-year over a lifetime might fall to around 32,000 pounds. Five RCTs of ICDs, a meta-analysis and, a cost-effectiveness analysis of ICDs used in primary prevention, and a meta-analysis of ICDs in patients with non-ischaemic cardiomyopathy have been published recently. These trials provide confirmation of survival benefit of ICDs used in primary prevention in both ischaemic and non-ischaemic cardiomyopathy patients. Costs per QALY ranged from US$34,000 in older trials to controls being both less expensive and more effective (CABG Patch, DINAMIT). More recent trials estimated cost per QALY between $50,300 and $70,200. The inconsistency in evidence for a HRQoL benefit has not been resolved and further work on risk stratification is necessary. CONCLUSIONS: The evidence of short- to medium-term patient benefit from ICDs is strong but cost-effectiveness modelling indicates that the extent of that benefit is probably not sufficient to make the technology cost-effective as used currently in the UK. One reason is the high rates of postimplantation hospitalisation. Better patient targeting and efforts to reduce the need for such hospitalisation may improve cost-effectiveness. Further cost-effectiveness modelling, underpinned by an improved ICD database with reliable long-term follow-up, is required. The absence of a robust measure of the incidence of sudden cardiac death is noted and this may be an area where further organisational changes with improved data collection would help.

Double-blind, randomised, controlled trial assessing controller medications in asthma.

BACKGROUND: The motive behind conducting this study was to determine if better control of asthma can be achieved by adding a second controller medication and to assess its use to reduce the dose of inhaled steroids. OBJECTIVES: The study aimed to determine whether either oral sustained-release theophylline or montelukast added to inhaled steroids improved clinical symptoms and pulmonary function test parameters when compared to high-dose steroids alone. METHODS: Ninety patients with incompletely controlled asthma were allocated, in a randomised, double-blind fashion, to one of three treatment groups: group A: double dose of inhaled budesonide (400 microg b.i.d.), group B: 400 mg oral sustained-release theophylline plus budesonide (200 microg b.i.d.) and group C: 10 mg montelukast plus budesonide (200 microg b.i.d.). The primary endpoints were forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV(1)) and mean morning peak expiratory flow rate (PEFR). RESULTS: All three groups had improved FEV(1) and PEFR at 8 weeks (p < 0.001). Group C increased their PEFR by 18.7 l/min (95% confidence interval, CI, 12.4-25.1) more than group A and by 19.8 l/min (95% CI 13.4-26.1) more than group B (both p = 0.001). Similarly, group C had a 114 ml (95% CI 45-183 ml) greater improvement in FEV(1) than group A and a 95 ml (95% CI 26-164 ml) greater improvement than group B (both p = 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Addition of montelukast to budesonide is safe and results in greater improvement in pulmonary function test parameters than high-dose budesonide treatment or addition of theophylline.

Bayesian evidence synthesis to extrapolate survival estimates in cost-effectiveness studies.

This paper is concerned with survival extrapolation that represents an integral part of cost-effectiveness analysis. In the absence of long-term survival estimates from randomized clinical trials or meta-analysis we show how age-sex matched U.K. population data can additionally be used to estimate survival patterns. We adopt a Bayesian approach and we synthesize evidence from different sources such as patient registries, U.K. population statistics and meta-analyses. We also present methodology for Bayesian analysis of the additive hazards model and we show how to apply the techniques using freely available software. The methods are illustrated using data from a cohort of cardiac arrhythmia patients.

Octogenarians undergoing cardiac surgery outlive their peers: a case for early referral.

OBJECTIVE: To examine short and long term outcomes of octogenarians having heart operations and to analyse the interaction between patient and treatment factors. METHODS: Multivariate analysis of prospectively collected data and a survival comparison with an age and sex matched national population. The outcomes were base in-hospital mortality, risk stratified by logistic EuroSCORE (European system for cardiac operative risk evaluation), and long term survival. RESULTS: 12,461 consecutive patients (706 over 80 years) operated on between 1996 and 2003 in a regional UK unit were studied. Octogenarians more often had impaired ventricular function, pulmonary hypertension, and valve operations. They also included a higher proportion of women, had a higher serum creatinine concentration, and had a trend towards more unstable angina. Younger patients had a higher prevalence of previous cardiac operation, previous myocardial infarction, and diabetes. The in-hospital mortality rate was 3.9% for all patients (EuroSCORE predicted 6.1%, p < 0.001) and 9.8% for octogenarians (predicted 14.1%, p = 0.002). Long bypass time and non-elective surgery increased the risk of death above EuroSCORE prediction in both groups. A greater proportion of octogenarians stayed in intensive care more than 24 hours (37% v 23%, p < 0.001). Long term survival was significantly better in the study patients than in a general population with the same age-sex distribution (survival rate at five years 82.1% v 55.9%, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Cardiac surgery in a UK population of octogenarians produced excellent results. Elective referrals should be encouraged in all age groups.